I'm not a Playstation fanboy. I own neither a 360 nor a PS3. My reasoning is based purely on what I've gathered from sources and articles across the web. The people who ultimately decide if MGS4 becomes multi-platform are business minded and so I've considered this situation from a profit standpoint. Hit the jump to read my 5 reasons why MGS4 will never see the Xbox 360 platform.
1) Metal Gear and the Playstation go together like Salt and Pepper
A long time ago Kojima told Official Xbox Magazine that Metal Gear is "made for the Playstation Platform" The only Metal Gear title released on the Xbox was Metal Gear Solid 2: Substance, which was also released on the PS2 and PC. Some complain that Substance was sub-par on the Xbox as it suffered from lag and clumsy controls. Metal Gear Solid 4 makes use of the PS3's sixaxis. Right now motion controls on the Xbox 360 are nothing more than rumors. Though Kojima has said that the 360 can run MGS4, certain distinctions between the two platforms make the port difficult if not unreasonable and most definitely costly.
2) MGS4 Will Reach Sales Goals
One of the points used to justify a 360 version of MGS4 is the fact that MGS4 must sell an incredible number of copies in a very short time to reconcile it's massive development budget. Some argue that since PS3 exclusive Uncharted: Drake's Fortune sold just over a half million copies in less time it seems possible that MGS4 will not reach it's own astronomical sales goals. To be fair, Uncharted was not PS3's most anticipated title. Sure it's a fantastic game and massively popular, but MGS4, by the time it's released, will have enjoyed years of publicity. Not to mention, as a series Metal Gear Solid is one of the most highly acclaimed of all time. When it comes to selling power Metal Gear Solid is in a league of it's own.
3) Yeah, but will there even be enough PS3's on the market to support MGS4?
What we sometimes forget about Metal Gear Solid 4 is that, for most people, it is THE reason to buy a PS3. There's no shortage of PS3's and MGS4 doesn't come out for months so what does the average gamer do? Wait. There's no harm in waiting until June and with any luck maybe Sony will drops it's prices. For non-PS3 owners the inclusion MGO makes the $500+ cost of owning MGS4 a little less painful. I stand by my prediction that MGS4 will push the sale of PS3s and Sony, Konami, and Kojima will do everything they can to maximize those sales.
4) But what if it all falls through?
There's probably little chance the MGS4 will flop, but there is a small chance that it will fall short of selling a million copies on day one. So in such a situation are Konami and Kojima screwed? I don't think so. There's no doubt that they're preparing for such a situation. Think of the profit potential of Metal Gear Online. They're definitely releasing the two games at once for a reason. MGO has potential to make money for years to come. There's the possibility of micro-transactions and even in-game advertising. The version of MGO coming with MGS4 is only a "starter pack." I hate to think it but it's possible that additional maps and content will be sold over PSN.
5) And if not?
Well there's always Metal Gear Solid 4: Super-Subsistentiality. But even this game won't come to the Xbox. If the releases of Substance and Subsistence are any indication then we might see a bonus edition of MGS4 by late Summer or Fall of 2009 when console sales will be leveling. As said earlier Substance came to PS2, Xbox and PC with mixed reviews. The original Sons of Liberty scored a 96 on Metacritic while the Xbox's Substance scored an 87. Subsistence, on the other hand, stayed exclusive to the PS2 and scored better than the original Snake Eater, 94 to 91. With a tight budget it makes more sense for Konami to re-release MGS4 on PS3 rather than re-build it for the 360. Especially at a time when the PS3 market share is likely to rival Xbox's.
Sorry 360 fans. If it makes you feel better no one has denied that a Metal Gear title is coming to the 360 - it just won't be MGS4.
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