Pachter: GTA 5 by 2010, GTA 4 DLC to Sell 2 Million by Year's End
What with development for the DLC episodes, Rockstar Games isn't done with Grand Theft Auto 4 just yet.
Despite that, analyst Michael Pachter is already pegging 2010 as the perfect time for the next console iteration of the sandbox franchise.
And since it's Pachter we're talking about here, he can't just leave it at a release date prediction. He's also forecasting that by 2010 - if GTA V does get released then - it will be able to sell 50% more than last year's GTA IV.
To quote: We don't think it is reasonable to estimate that sales of GTA will double the prior version, but we think that a 25 - 30 per cent penetration is reasonable, suggesting 15 - 18 million units sold.
That means that Take-Two's profits from the next iteration should be approximately 50 per cent greater than from the last version.
Total sales for GTA IV on the PS3 and Xbox 360 currently amount to 12 million units so far. That's 40% of the 30 million projected installed base of the PS3 and Xbox 360 combined in Europe and North America. (In short, of all the people who have a PS3 or 360 in the west, 40% of them bought GTA IV). The "25-30% penetration" he mentions above is based on a projected 60-million combined installed base for the two consoles by 2010.
Another prediction from our weather forecaster: GTA IV's next DLC for the Xbox 360 could be rolling out this November. With the first DLC (The Lost and Damned) already breaching the 1-million mark, total sales for both the first and second DLC could easily reach 2 million by the end of 2009.
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Michael Pachter has to be one of the world's worst analysts.
Has this guy nailed anything? Seriously? He seems to call a lot of stuff that never happens yet for some reason he still gets interviewed a lot.
Regardless I can see the DLC numbers happening. Proabably a little agressive but eh. But GTA5 by 2010? That means before 2010. That means sometime in 2009. That means this year.
It seems to soon after GTA4 and there's still 2-3 more DLC episodes coming.