Here's why Blu-ray will be Dead by 2012
Planning to buy a Blu-ray player? Hold on. It's already battling public indifference, technical problems, laughable features and downloadable movies. Is it any wonder Blu-ray is doomed to fail? Here are five reasons why it's heading for the grave...
1. HD movie downloads
OK so the picture quality's not quite there yet, but Bill Gates, Steve Jobs and others have already seen the future of movie viewing at home - and it doesn't come on shiny 12cm discs.
Instead services like iTunes, Xbox Live and Vudu already offer HD movies over the internet, enabling you to see the movies you want without having to hack down to the video store in the pouring rain.
With fibre-to-home broadband slowly being rolled out in the UK, who knows what the next few years will bring.
Have you seen the demos? BD-Live is a joke. It's a second-rate attempt to offer interactive features that HD DVD did first and much, much better.
It won't work on old Blu-ray players (they don't have the persistent storage) and may not work on new ones: it's not mandatory for Blu-ray player makers to include it in the hardware they sell.
Result? Large doses of confusion and frustration for anyone (un)lucky enough to buy a Blu-ray disc with BD-Live features on it.
3. Samsung thinks Blu-ray is finished
You know, the world's number one consumer electronics maker, Blu-ray stalwart.
Andy Griffiths, director of consumer electronics at Samsung UK, told Pocket Lint that Blu-ray would be dead in five years, and that it certainly wouldn't last 10.
He believes the format will be replaced by either a new kind of physical media - most likely flash memory cards if Toshiba's IFA 2008 keynote is anything to go by - or downloads. Go figure.
4. Sony thinks Blu-ray is finished
Blu-ray is not only finished in terms of spec, but it's also finished as a format. Optical disc technology has gone as far as it can go.
Or so says Take Miyama, Sony product manager for home video marketing in Europe believes. He told Electric Pig that "in the future, if [our emphasis] we have a physical media format, it will change physically. It won't look like an optical disc."
Talk of a 500GB Blu-ray prototype will only prolong the agony.
Sony has already hinted at its future direction with the launch of Bravia TVs in the US that can directly receive movies streamed over the internet. Blu-ray player not required.
5. DVD is good enough
Despite the fact that Blu-ray movies are expected to hit to 12 million sales in Europe this year, they still account for just two per cent of video sales in countries like the UK.
Even by 2012 DVD will still have the edge - and that's according to the Blu-ray Disc Association's own over-enthusiastic predictions [PDF link].
The plain fact is few of us are ever likely to swap extensive DVD collection for their Blu-ray equivalents, especially when prices for Blu-ray movies and players are still so high.
Given that many cheap DVD players now have some kind of upscaling capability, DVD will prove 'good enough' in terms of picture quality for many years to come. More PlayStation 3 News...
sounds like an xbox fanboy to me
Idk.. its kinda hard to believe look at where DVD is and how it will still be around.
#1 Reason is Price
"The plain fact is few of us are ever likely to swap extensive DVD collection for their Blu-ray equivalents, especially when prices for Blu-ray movies and players are still so high."
Most, not all, but most buy based on price.
true, price is a good reason but like every thing in this world. price's go down and so will blue-ray, then blue-ray will really replace dvd.
So speaking of hd-dvd
for all the Xbox Fanboys out there, trying to pathetically make excuses when they wasted 100+ dollars on a hd-dvd player for their xbox 360 which format is ALREADY dead?
...That's what I thought. fail.
we've had downloads for years of music, movies etc.
but people will always want a hard copy of something at least me personally, I don't want my movie just on my computer etc. because if something happens to it then it's toast. regardless if memory sticks will replace optical discs eventually this is something that will take a long time to catch on just like cd's and dvd's did, way more than 4 years. Hell, to this day I'd still rather listen to vinyl than a cd. the sound quality is superior in everyway maybe I'm just a stickler for dependable things, I don't know.
09-16-2008 #7Given that many cheap DVD players now have some kind of upscaling capability, DVD will prove 'good enough' in terms of picture quality for many years to come.
If its a action packed blockbuster I simply must watch it on blu ray. DVD picture quality sadly just doesn't cut it for me anymore.
I've been watching high definition movies ever since ps3 launch and i cant go back now. whenever i watch dvds now they look awful and thats even when their upscaled. Blu-ray WILL catch on in a big way someday, prices will drop and blu-ray discs will be the norm.
Saying downloads is the way to go is a bit stupid in that you have to have the internet and a HD ready device and given that the ps3 is probably the most affordable Blu-ray player at the moment most people will buy that and demand for blu-ray movies will go up and they wont need a download service.
Didnt HD and DVD take ages to become well known and pretty cheap? Just because something starts with no sales and pretty expensive, doesnt mean in the future it wont be the best way to watch movies... When we have things like 2000 P/I (Obviously just rough guess) you think DVD or HD would be able to handle that without 2 discs?
09-22-2008 #10Banned User
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i like it to read those threads Blue Ray is a child of the DVD. and like the 20years before. every child of the CD is the future.
Microsoft lost millions of dollars 10years ago. when the whole world started to use CD's, and microsoft said "no zip is the future".
then blue ray gets released some years later and microsoft trys his own way with HD DVD. and now? febuary the news was released that hd dvd is cancled. the project is dead. microsoft lost again a fight.
and this will happens all the time again. nobody can win against the cd and his childs (dvd/blueray). and the future is also leaded by this line of technology.
for so long its clear that internet download movies gets more popular. but where to put this datas? blueray will be the save medium of the future. a double layer dvd with 8gb is allready to small to hold some films. because they have so much informations and datas that only a blue ray can hold the informations.
blue ray will never day. and i think in 10 years they will release a new children with will also win the fight against what ever microsoft and the rest will release.