August 19, 2009 // 7:54 am
- According to an analyst with EEDAR
, the Xbox 360 price drop will happen within a week.
That's right, the Xbox 360 price drop will no longer be rumor or speculation seven days from now, says EEDAR's Jesse Divnich
Instead, the Xbox 360 price drop will be reality within one week's time - and maybe within the current week.
To quote: "EEDAR is pleased to see that the PlayStation 3 has finally dropped in price. The new PlayStation 3 pricing scheme finally makes the Sony console a much more competitive product, relative to its closest rival, the Xbox 360.
In terms of value, the PlayStation 3 is a superior hardware product in comparison to the Xbox 360; however, this is not to suggest that hardware sales will suddenly shift to Sony's favor -- a superior hardware system is only one variable in the equation for next-generation success.
Nevertheless, the PlayStation 3 price cut will act as a positive catalyst that will close the sales gap between the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360. This price drop also places the PlayStation 3 at a competitive price to the Wii (retail MSRP $249).
While the target audience for the two platforms varies greatly, some consumers will face a tough decision to purchase the Wii with outdated processing power or the PlayStation 3 with a built-in Blu-Ray player. However, the market size of those actually debating between a PlayStation 3 and a Nintendo Wii is relatively small.
Additionally, we do expect Microsoft to make an official announcement, in the next week, regarding the elimination of the Xbox 360 Pro SKU (retail MSRP $299) and the reduction in the Elite SKU pricing to $299.
However, we just consider this a pseudo price drop. It is no different from Lexus introducing their 2010 models at the 2009 prices and clearing out their 2009 inventories. Sure, there is a better value, in comparison to the 2009 models, but a consumer still needs to be in the market for a luxury car to reap the benefits.
A consumer shopping for an entry-level sedan will not suddenly upgrade to a Lexus just because the 2010 models have been released. EEDAR does expect the Xbox 360 to get a small boost in sales in the short-term, but considers any Xbox 360 sales lift to be a positive byproduct from additional marketing and retail circular placements.
As a cautionary note, since we do not know the full extent of the upcoming Xbox 360 promotion, there is a possibility that one of the systems could have a larger hard-drive at the $299 price.
EEDAR, however, does not believe any disparity in hard-drive size will make a noticeable difference in how consumers value each product. Most consumers would not be able to tell you the true difference between a 120GB hard-drive and an 80GB hard-drive in terms of movie/music/game capacity.
Additionally, EEDAR does not expect these price cuts to increase software sales significantly through the holiday season. Even if the price cuts from both systems increase hardware sales by over 1 million units through the next six months, that would likely add an additional $200 million to the software bucket and would only increase 2009 sales by about 2% over current trend; hardly a significant boost. The true benefit to software sales from a hardware price cut are typically realized in the long-term, over the short-term."